Voting is now open for who we should include with Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin, and Mitt Romney on our next 2012 poll.
The choices are Rudy Giuliani, Rush Limbaugh, George Pataki, Ron Paul, and John Thune.
Thanks for all the good suggestions. I didn't put Jeb Bush, Newt Gingrich, or Tim Pawlenty on there simply because they'd been included in recent polls and we're trying to test a wider variety of candidates. You can vote until Friday morning at 10 AM and the poll will be out toward the end of next week.
Where should we poll this week?
What Republican should we add to the mix for our next 2012 poll?
Wednesday, November 11, 2009
Mixed messages on McCrory
Pat McCrory is leaving office as Mayor of Charlotte with his popularity intact. But that doesn't mean voters in the city are yearning for him to run for Governor again.
McCrory's final approval rating is 59%, with only 26% disapproving. He has the approval of 81% of Republicans and 62% of independents and his 39% approval rating with Charlotte Democrats is actually better than Bev Perdue's 38% approval with Democrats statewide in our most recent poll.
Despite his good overall numbers only 51% of voters in the city want him to challenge Perdue again in 2012, with 40% opposed.
The party breakdown on those numbers speaks to the trouble McCrory had with voters in the city last fall. Most Republicans who like the job he's doing want him to run again- but only 46% of independents would like to see him make a bid despite his 62% approval with them and just 27% of Democrats want him to even though 39% think he's a good Mayor.
McCrory's popularity as Mayor didn't translate to support for Governor in 2008 at the sort of level that he needed, and it looks like he might continue to be plagued by that problem with a repeat bid in 2012. Given the strong unhappiness many Charlotte residents express with their treatment by the rest of the state this is somewhat curious, but for most voters in the city party still trumps province.
Full results here
McCrory's final approval rating is 59%, with only 26% disapproving. He has the approval of 81% of Republicans and 62% of independents and his 39% approval rating with Charlotte Democrats is actually better than Bev Perdue's 38% approval with Democrats statewide in our most recent poll.
Despite his good overall numbers only 51% of voters in the city want him to challenge Perdue again in 2012, with 40% opposed.
The party breakdown on those numbers speaks to the trouble McCrory had with voters in the city last fall. Most Republicans who like the job he's doing want him to run again- but only 46% of independents would like to see him make a bid despite his 62% approval with them and just 27% of Democrats want him to even though 39% think he's a good Mayor.
McCrory's popularity as Mayor didn't translate to support for Governor in 2008 at the sort of level that he needed, and it looks like he might continue to be plagued by that problem with a repeat bid in 2012. Given the strong unhappiness many Charlotte residents express with their treatment by the rest of the state this is somewhat curious, but for most voters in the city party still trumps province.
Full results here
Some key words in the Cunningham non-candidacy letter
Chris Cillizza suggests this morning that despite Cal Cunningham's announcement Monday night that he will not run for the Senate, he may yet be recruited into the race by Senate Democrats if Bob Etheridge is a no go.
I don't think so. These to me were clearly the key words in Cunningham's announcement:
I don't think so. These to me were clearly the key words in Cunningham's announcement:
Thanks, too, to the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee for their professionalism, encouragement and guidance on putting together a campaign team of the best.Their partnership is an essential ingredient in winning Senate campaigns.
The implications of that last line were pretty clear to me- he didn't have the partnership of the DSCC, wasn't going to have the partnership of the DSCC at least this time around, and didn't think he could win a Senate campaign without the partnership of the DSCC. Which frankly he's probably right about- he was going to need their help to raise the money necessary for a winning campaign.
It's seemed evident for months that the reason for Cunningham's 'will he or won't he' style campaign was that he was waiting to see whether he would receive the blessing of the DSCC or not. It looks like he got the answer to that question, and finally made up his mind.
Tuesday, November 10, 2009
Some bad news for Democrats
For the most part this year our polling has found that there aren't a lot of Obama voters straying when it comes to the 2010 races. At the same time most of our polling hasn't been of likely voters, and the generic Congressional ballot polling we did of the New Jersey and Virginia Gubernatorial electorates last week has some red flags for Democrats in it.
In Virginia 74% of Obama voters say they'll choose a Democrat for Congress next year to 13% expressing an intent to vote Republican. In New Jersey the numbers are very similar with 74% of Obama voters planning to go Democrats to 11% planning to vote Republican.
McCain voters are extremely unified. In Virginia they plan to vote Republican by an 86-3 margin. In New Jersey they plan to do so by an 88-3 margin.
These numbers are pretty bad news for Glenn Nye, Tom Perriello, and John Adler. They have two big issues they're going to have to deal with next year:
-A drop off in Democratic turnout from 2008
-Independents who voted for Obama in 2008 going Republican in 2010 to create more balance in Washington.
Mind you, I don't think there is a huge group of voters that will do the latter, but none of these three guys had much margin for error. They're going to have to run exceptional campaigns, which is within their own hands, and hope that they get somewhat duddy opponents, which they have less control over.
I'll have some more on independents who voted for Obama in the next couple days.
In Virginia 74% of Obama voters say they'll choose a Democrat for Congress next year to 13% expressing an intent to vote Republican. In New Jersey the numbers are very similar with 74% of Obama voters planning to go Democrats to 11% planning to vote Republican.
McCain voters are extremely unified. In Virginia they plan to vote Republican by an 86-3 margin. In New Jersey they plan to do so by an 88-3 margin.
These numbers are pretty bad news for Glenn Nye, Tom Perriello, and John Adler. They have two big issues they're going to have to deal with next year:
-A drop off in Democratic turnout from 2008
-Independents who voted for Obama in 2008 going Republican in 2010 to create more balance in Washington.
Mind you, I don't think there is a huge group of voters that will do the latter, but none of these three guys had much margin for error. They're going to have to run exceptional campaigns, which is within their own hands, and hope that they get somewhat duddy opponents, which they have less control over.
I'll have some more on independents who voted for Obama in the next couple days.
GOP controlled by conservatives everywhere
I heard from several folks that they were surprised the Republican electorate in Maine is so dominated by conservatives. Based on our polling data this year though I doubt there is any state where an overwhelming majority of Republicans are not conservatives.
In the 14 states where we've broken out ideology within parties this year, conservatives range from 78% of Republican voters in Arkansas to 63% in New Jersey.
What does that mean? Pretty much any moderate Republican should be on notice if they get a well funded conservative primary challenge...the will of the voters is there but as with anything in politics it comes down to money. So far we have not seen enough financial resources there to allow for a systematic targeting of moderate Republicans in primaries...but in the places where the Club for Growth and others have picked their battles they've been pretty successful. It will be interesting to see if this occurs on a much broader scale next year.
Here's the state by state data:
In the 14 states where we've broken out ideology within parties this year, conservatives range from 78% of Republican voters in Arkansas to 63% in New Jersey.
What does that mean? Pretty much any moderate Republican should be on notice if they get a well funded conservative primary challenge...the will of the voters is there but as with anything in politics it comes down to money. So far we have not seen enough financial resources there to allow for a systematic targeting of moderate Republicans in primaries...but in the places where the Club for Growth and others have picked their battles they've been pretty successful. It will be interesting to see if this occurs on a much broader scale next year.
Here's the state by state data:
| State | % of Republicans who are conservatives |
| | 78 |
| | 77 |
| | 76 |
| | 76 |
| | 74 |
| | 73 |
| | 73 |
| | 68 |
| | 68 |
| | 67 |
| | 67 |
| | 67 |
| | 64 |
| | 63 |
Taking suggestions
Taking suggestions for two things:
-Who should we include as the 4th Republican, along with Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin, and Mitt Romney, on our monthly 2012 poll? We'll take nominations for about the next 24 hours and then put it to a vote. This could be a minor test of netroots strength.
-Any ideas for good outside the box (maybe crazy is a better word) polling questions for our national poll this month? We've done birthers, Obama as the anti-Christ, etc. in the past and we like to get something along those lines into every poll just to measure how much of the country buys into some of the pretty far fetched stuff floating around out there.
-Who should we include as the 4th Republican, along with Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin, and Mitt Romney, on our monthly 2012 poll? We'll take nominations for about the next 24 hours and then put it to a vote. This could be a minor test of netroots strength.
-Any ideas for good outside the box (maybe crazy is a better word) polling questions for our national poll this month? We've done birthers, Obama as the anti-Christ, etc. in the past and we like to get something along those lines into every poll just to measure how much of the country buys into some of the pretty far fetched stuff floating around out there.
Tough future for Snowe as a Republican
It looks like Olympia Snowe could have a pretty hard time getting nominated for another term in the Senate as a Republican.
There are now more folks in her party who disapprove than approve of Snowe's job performance. 46% of GOP voters think she's doing a bad job to 40% who give her good marks.
Snowe is still pretty popular with the liberal/moderate wing of her party, earning a 64% approval rating from them. But even in Maine 68% of Republicans are conservatives and they give her just a 29% approval rating with a 56% majority disapproving of her.
Asked how they would vote in a primary contest between Snowe and a more conservative challenger, just 31% of likely Republican voters say they would pick Snowe while 59% say they would go for the conservative alternative.
Obviously 2012 is a long ways away. Snowe could get herself back into the good graces of the Republican electorate, or a conservative challenge could fail to materialize. But given the recent successes of the Club for Growth, at least within the sphere of GOP voters, Snowe seems a pretty likely target.
Snowe's overall popularity is still decent, with 51% of voters approving of her to 36% disapproving. That owes to a 60% approval rating with Democrats and a 51% mark with independents. Even her pretty good marks with Democrats speak to the perils of moderation though- she's down from a 70% approval rating with them three weeks ago. It may be that while her actions on health care have proven to be too much for Republicans, they're not enough for some segment of the Democratic electorate.
Ultimately Snowe's future political survival may have to come as an independent- winning either party's primary could be a challenge. And the good news for her is that Maine has been unusually hospitable toward independent candidates, so it's not beyond the realm of possibility.
Full results here
There are now more folks in her party who disapprove than approve of Snowe's job performance. 46% of GOP voters think she's doing a bad job to 40% who give her good marks.
Snowe is still pretty popular with the liberal/moderate wing of her party, earning a 64% approval rating from them. But even in Maine 68% of Republicans are conservatives and they give her just a 29% approval rating with a 56% majority disapproving of her.
Asked how they would vote in a primary contest between Snowe and a more conservative challenger, just 31% of likely Republican voters say they would pick Snowe while 59% say they would go for the conservative alternative.
Obviously 2012 is a long ways away. Snowe could get herself back into the good graces of the Republican electorate, or a conservative challenge could fail to materialize. But given the recent successes of the Club for Growth, at least within the sphere of GOP voters, Snowe seems a pretty likely target.
Snowe's overall popularity is still decent, with 51% of voters approving of her to 36% disapproving. That owes to a 60% approval rating with Democrats and a 51% mark with independents. Even her pretty good marks with Democrats speak to the perils of moderation though- she's down from a 70% approval rating with them three weeks ago. It may be that while her actions on health care have proven to be too much for Republicans, they're not enough for some segment of the Democratic electorate.
Ultimately Snowe's future political survival may have to come as an independent- winning either party's primary could be a challenge. And the good news for her is that Maine has been unusually hospitable toward independent candidates, so it's not beyond the realm of possibility.
Full results here
Monday, November 9, 2009
It's early but Booker looks good
Almost every time in 2009 that we've polled on a politician for the first time and been surprised by the numbers it's been because that person is more unpopular than we expected. We are in a recession period for the popularity of politicians, and that's been par for the course.
There is one exception to that rule though: Cory Booker. When we polled on him in September there was a lot to be impressed with in his numbers. A lot could change in four years but if his standing remains as good as it is now New Jersey Democratic recruitment efforts should start and end with him for the 2013 Governor's race, assuming he's up for it.
Starting with his popularity within the party, 55% of Democrats have a favorable opinion of him, almost as good as the 60% who viewed Jon Corzine favorably on our final poll. But only 12% have a negative opinion of him, less than half of the 28% who held a dim view of Corzine. If you're a Democrat and you can win 85% or more of the Democratic vote in New Jersey, you win, period. Corzine lost because he didn't do that, but Booker would start out in a good position to do so.
Booker's got good numbers across party lines too though. Independents view him positively 35/24, and keep in mind those numbers are with the very conservative leaning group of independents who gave Christie an overwhelming margin last week. That +11 favorability ratio with them is better than Daggett's was (+1), Christie's (even), and obviously Corzine's (-43). It seems likely Booker could at least break even with independents and that's more than good enough in what is typically a deep blue state.
The thing that impressed me the most though about Booker's numbers was his standing with Republicans. A small plurality (29/27) held a positive opinion of him. Certainly I wouldn't expect him to win anywhere near 29% of the Republican vote, but the primary motivator for GOP voters last week seemed to be hatred of Corzine so Democrats would be better off with someone at the top of the ticket who isn't such a lightning rod.
2013 is quite a ways off, but Booker looks to be a very impressive candidate.
There is one exception to that rule though: Cory Booker. When we polled on him in September there was a lot to be impressed with in his numbers. A lot could change in four years but if his standing remains as good as it is now New Jersey Democratic recruitment efforts should start and end with him for the 2013 Governor's race, assuming he's up for it.
Starting with his popularity within the party, 55% of Democrats have a favorable opinion of him, almost as good as the 60% who viewed Jon Corzine favorably on our final poll. But only 12% have a negative opinion of him, less than half of the 28% who held a dim view of Corzine. If you're a Democrat and you can win 85% or more of the Democratic vote in New Jersey, you win, period. Corzine lost because he didn't do that, but Booker would start out in a good position to do so.
Booker's got good numbers across party lines too though. Independents view him positively 35/24, and keep in mind those numbers are with the very conservative leaning group of independents who gave Christie an overwhelming margin last week. That +11 favorability ratio with them is better than Daggett's was (+1), Christie's (even), and obviously Corzine's (-43). It seems likely Booker could at least break even with independents and that's more than good enough in what is typically a deep blue state.
The thing that impressed me the most though about Booker's numbers was his standing with Republicans. A small plurality (29/27) held a positive opinion of him. Certainly I wouldn't expect him to win anywhere near 29% of the Republican vote, but the primary motivator for GOP voters last week seemed to be hatred of Corzine so Democrats would be better off with someone at the top of the ticket who isn't such a lightning rod.
2013 is quite a ways off, but Booker looks to be a very impressive candidate.
Some interesting health care numbers
Is it possible that the health care issue has gotten Republicans/conservatives so fired up that they're going to be more energized to go and try to vote out Democrats next year whether a substantive bill actually passes or not?
We put that theory to the test in New Jersey and Virginia last week and it seems that the answer might be yes.
First we asked in general whether people would vote Democratic or Republican for Congress next year. In Virginia they said they'd go for the GOP by a 49-37 margin and in New Jersey they said they would be a 46-41 spread (keep in mind these polls were of the 2009 electorate.)
Second we asked how they would vote for Congress next year if no health care bill passed. In Virginia that increased the GOP lead to 49-35 and in New Jersey it expanded it to 45-38. In other words the failure to pass health care did not put any dent into the percentage of people saying they'll vote Republican next year. They're voting for the GOP whether health care passes or not. But it did create a small decline in Democratic support from voters who seem to be saying that if a Democratic Congress can't create meaningful health care reform what's the point in going out to vote Democratic anyway.
Third we asked how people would vote if Congress passed a health care bill with a public option. In Virginia the GOP led 51-39 under that scenario and in New Jersey it was a 47-40 advantage. So in Virginia Democrats poll slightly better with a comprehensive health care bill than without one and in New Jersey there's no difference.
Here's my take aways:
-The mere specter of a health care bill has gotten Republicans fired up to go vote next year and they're going to do it whether one passes or not. But Democrats might stay at home, like they did this year, without one. Democratic voters need to see that getting control of Washington accomplished something for them to be motivated to get out there next year and keep control of Washington.
-At this point the political fallout for Democrats from not passing a health care bill is worse than the fallout from passing one. The damage is done with Republicans, is it going to get done with Democrats as well?
The full numbers from these questions here
We put that theory to the test in New Jersey and Virginia last week and it seems that the answer might be yes.
First we asked in general whether people would vote Democratic or Republican for Congress next year. In Virginia they said they'd go for the GOP by a 49-37 margin and in New Jersey they said they would be a 46-41 spread (keep in mind these polls were of the 2009 electorate.)
Second we asked how they would vote for Congress next year if no health care bill passed. In Virginia that increased the GOP lead to 49-35 and in New Jersey it expanded it to 45-38. In other words the failure to pass health care did not put any dent into the percentage of people saying they'll vote Republican next year. They're voting for the GOP whether health care passes or not. But it did create a small decline in Democratic support from voters who seem to be saying that if a Democratic Congress can't create meaningful health care reform what's the point in going out to vote Democratic anyway.
Third we asked how people would vote if Congress passed a health care bill with a public option. In Virginia the GOP led 51-39 under that scenario and in New Jersey it was a 47-40 advantage. So in Virginia Democrats poll slightly better with a comprehensive health care bill than without one and in New Jersey there's no difference.
Here's my take aways:
-The mere specter of a health care bill has gotten Republicans fired up to go vote next year and they're going to do it whether one passes or not. But Democrats might stay at home, like they did this year, without one. Democratic voters need to see that getting control of Washington accomplished something for them to be motivated to get out there next year and keep control of Washington.
-At this point the political fallout for Democrats from not passing a health care bill is worse than the fallout from passing one. The damage is done with Republicans, is it going to get done with Democrats as well?
The full numbers from these questions here
Vote on where we poll
One thing I want to say up front before getting to this month's options is that I don't really believe in doing blended primary/general election polls when an election is less than a year away. It's really two entirely different electorates so to do both well you have to conduct two separate polls. If you do a primary poll among general election voters, people will over report their likelihood of voting in a primary while if you do a general poll among primary voters you are leaving out a lot of independents and people who are soft partisans. So I'm just going to stick to doing primary polls where I pull lists based on primary vote history and general polls where I pull lists based on general vote history. For the most part that's going to mean only doing one or the other at a time.
Here are this month's choices in alphabetical order:
Delaware: Interested in looking at both the Senate and the House races, particularly to see if Mike Castle's health care vote has any impact on his crossover popularity.
Georgia: Before the climate turned sour I thought this was the best pick up opportunity for Democrats on the Senate front that no one was paying attention to. We found Johnny Isakson's approval rating at 30% last year. I'm interested to see if that's still the case, and if it is how some of the Dems in the crowded Gubernatorial field might fare if they switched races.
Illinois Primary: Very interesting choices on both the Democratic and Republican sides for Governor and Senate. With this primary less than three months away I am pretty sure we will begin monthly tracking for the rest of 2009 soon and then perhaps every other weekly tracking when the calendar turns but it's up to you whether we go ahead and do it this week.
Missouri: This may be the most under polled close Senate race next year- how is Robin Carnahan holding up with the winds blowing in a Republican direction?
Ohio: Self explanatory- close races for Governor and Senate. We showed Ted Strickland in trouble as far back as January- is that continuing onto the Senate race?
You have until Thursday to vote.
Here are this month's choices in alphabetical order:
Delaware: Interested in looking at both the Senate and the House races, particularly to see if Mike Castle's health care vote has any impact on his crossover popularity.
Georgia: Before the climate turned sour I thought this was the best pick up opportunity for Democrats on the Senate front that no one was paying attention to. We found Johnny Isakson's approval rating at 30% last year. I'm interested to see if that's still the case, and if it is how some of the Dems in the crowded Gubernatorial field might fare if they switched races.
Illinois Primary: Very interesting choices on both the Democratic and Republican sides for Governor and Senate. With this primary less than three months away I am pretty sure we will begin monthly tracking for the rest of 2009 soon and then perhaps every other weekly tracking when the calendar turns but it's up to you whether we go ahead and do it this week.
Missouri: This may be the most under polled close Senate race next year- how is Robin Carnahan holding up with the winds blowing in a Republican direction?
Ohio: Self explanatory- close races for Governor and Senate. We showed Ted Strickland in trouble as far back as January- is that continuing onto the Senate race?
You have until Thursday to vote.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
